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Mean Reversion Bollinger Band Dollar-Cost Averaging Investment Strategy

Published at
1/13/2025
Categories
strategy
trading
cryptocurrency
bollinger
Author
fmzquant
Author
8 person written this
fmzquant
open
Mean Reversion Bollinger Band Dollar-Cost Averaging Investment Strategy

Image description

Overview
This strategy is an intelligent investment strategy that combines the dollar cost averaging method (DCA) and the Bollinger Bands technical indicator. It systematically builds positions during price corrections and uses the mean reversion principle to invest. The core of this strategy is to execute a fixed amount of buying operations when the price falls below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, so as to obtain a better entry price during the market adjustment period.

Strategy Principle
The core principles of the strategy are based on three foundations: 1) Dollar Cost Averaging, which reduces timing risk by investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals; 2) Mean Reversion Theory, which holds that prices will eventually return to their historical averages; and 3) Bollinger Bands, which are used to identify overbought and oversold areas. A buy signal is triggered when the price breaks through the lower Bollinger Band, and the buy quantity is determined by the set investment amount divided by the current price. The strategy uses a 200-period exponential moving average as the middle band of the Bollinger Band, with a standard deviation multiple of 2, to define the upper and lower bands.

Strategy Advantages

  1. Reduce timing risk - reduce human error by buying systematically rather than subjectively
  2. Seize pullback opportunities - automatically buy when prices fall too far
  3. Flexible parameter settings - Bollinger Band parameters and investment amounts can be adjusted according to different market environments
  4. Clear entry and exit rules - objective signals based on technical indicators
  5. Automated execution - no need for manual intervention, avoid emotional trading

Strategy Risks

  1. Risk of Mean Reversion Failure - May generate more false signals in trending markets
  2. Fund management risk - need to reserve enough funds to deal with continuous buy signals
  3. Parameter optimization risk - over-optimization may lead to strategy failure
  4. Market environment dependence - performance may be poor in volatile markets
  5. It is recommended to adopt a strict money management system and regularly evaluate strategy performance to manage these risks.

Strategy Optimization Direction

  1. Introduce trend filters to avoid counter-trend operations in strong trends
  2. Add multiple time period confirmation mechanism
  3. Optimize the fund management system and dynamically adjust the investment amount according to volatility
  4. Add profit-taking mechanism to take profits when prices return to the mean
  5. Consider combining other technical indicators to improve signal reliability

Summary
This is a robust strategy that combines technical analysis with a systematic investment approach. Bollinger Bands are used to identify oversold opportunities, and dollar-cost averaging is used to reduce risk. The key to the success of the strategy lies in the reasonable setting of parameters and strict execution discipline. Although there are certain risks, the stability of the strategy can be improved through continuous optimization and risk management.

Strategy source code

/*backtest
start: 2019-12-23 08:00:00
end: 2024-12-10 08:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1d
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5
strategy("DCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Band", overlay=true) // Define the strategy name and set overlay=true to display on the main chart

// Inputs for investment amount and dates
investment_amount = input.float(10000, title="Investment Amount (USD)", tooltip="Amount to be invested in each buy order (in USD)") // Amount to invest in each buy order
open_date = input(timestamp("2024-01-01 00:00:00"), title="Open All Positions On", tooltip="Date when to start opening positions for DCA strategy") // Date to start opening positions
close_date = input(timestamp("2024-08-04 00:00:00"), title="Close All Positions On", tooltip="Date when to close all open positions for DCA strategy") // Date to close all positions

// Bollinger Band parameters
source = input.source(title="Source", defval=close, group="Bollinger Band Parameter", tooltip="The price source to calculate the Bollinger Bands (e.g., closing price)") // Source of price for calculating Bollinger Bands (e.g., closing price)
length = input.int(200, minval=1, title='Period', group="Bollinger Band Parameter", tooltip="Period for the Bollinger Band calculation (e.g., 200-period moving average)") // Period for calculating the Bollinger Bands (e.g., 200-period moving average)
mult = input.float(2, minval=0.1, maxval=50, step=0.1, title='Standard Deviation', group="Bollinger Band Parameter", tooltip="Multiplier for the standard deviation to define the upper and lower bands") // Multiplier for the standard deviation to calculate the upper and lower bands

// Timeframe selection for Bollinger Bands
tf = input.timeframe(title="Bollinger Band Timeframe", defval="240", group="Bollinger Band Parameter", tooltip="The timeframe used to calculate the Bollinger Bands (e.g., 4-hour chart)") // Timeframe for calculating the Bollinger Bands (e.g., 4-hour chart)

// Calculate BB for the chosen timeframe using security
[basis, bb_dev] = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, tf, [ta.ema(source, length), mult * ta.stdev(source, length)]) // Calculate Basis (EMA) and standard deviation for the chosen timeframe
upper = basis + bb_dev // Calculate the Upper Band by adding the standard deviation to the Basis
lower = basis - bb_dev // Calculate the Lower Band by subtracting the standard deviation from the Basis

// Plot Bollinger Bands
plot(basis, color=color.red, title="Middle Band (SMA)") // Plot the middle band (Basis, EMA) in red
plot(upper, color=color.blue, title="Upper Band") // Plot the Upper Band in blue
plot(lower, color=color.blue, title="Lower Band") // Plot the Lower Band in blue
fill(plot(upper), plot(lower), color=color.blue, transp=90) // Fill the area between Upper and Lower Bands with blue color at 90% transparency

// Define buy condition based on Bollinger Band 
buy_condition = ta.crossunder(source, lower) // Define the buy condition when the price crosses under the Lower Band (Mean Reversion strategy)

// Execute buy orders on the Bollinger Band Mean Reversion condition
if (buy_condition ) // Check if the buy condition is true and time is within the open and close date range
    strategy.order("DCA Buy", strategy.long, qty=investment_amount / close) // Execute the buy order with the specified investment amount

// Close all positions on the specified date
if (time >= close_date) // Check if the current time is after the close date
    strategy.close_all() // Close all open positions

// Track the background color state
var color bgColor = na // Initialize a variable to store the background color (set to 'na' initially)

// Update background color based on conditions
if close > upper // If the close price is above the Upper Band
    bgColor := color.red // Set the background color to red
else if close < lower // If the close price is below the Lower Band
    bgColor := color.green // Set the background color to green

// Apply the background color
bgcolor(bgColor, transp=90, title="Background Color Based on Bollinger Bands") // Set the background color based on the determined condition with 90% transparency

// Postscript:
// 1. Once you have set the "Investment Amount (USD)" in the input box, proceed with additional configuration. 
// Go to "Properties" and adjust the "Initial Capital" value by calculating it as "Total Closed Trades" multiplied by "Investment Amount (USD)" 
// to ensure the backtest results are aligned correctly with the actual investment values.
//
// Example:
// Investment Amount (USD) = 100 USD
// Total Closed Trades = 10 
// Initial Capital = 10 x 100 = 1,000 USD

// Investment Amount (USD) = 200 USD
// Total Closed Trades = 24 
// Initial Capital = 24 x 200 = 4,800 USD
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Strategy parameters

Image description

The original address: https://www.fmz.com/strategy/474879

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